Why a Manchin run seemed destined to fail
While many reporters focused on Manchin's decision to not run for President, there were signs hinting that the run would never come to be.
On Feb. 16, 2024, the news industry turned its eyes and ears towards West Virginia as Senator Joe Manchin III (D-WV) announced he would not run for President as a third-party candidate.
For months, Manchin had stoked speculation among political reporters and observers by suggesting he may run on a bipartisan ticket consisting of a Republican and a Democrat created by the political organization No Labels. The conservative Democrat raised eyebrows in the latter half of 2023 by announcing he would not run for re-election in the Senate. Instead, he went on a listening tour to see if there was “any interest” among voters for a third-party candidate.
All that speculation was destroyed like a burnt pepperoni roll on Friday, as Manchin announced in Morgantown that he would not run for the Oval Office.
“I will not seek a third-party run,” Manchin said. “I will not be involved in a presidential run.”
For many reporters, Manchin’s decision not to run made sense. Despite the coy statements from the senator suggesting that voters deserve better than former President Donald Trump (R) and President Joe Biden (D), Manchin is a man of pride. He has said on multiple occasions he would not participate in any election unless he had a real shot at winning. Indeed, in the few polls featuring Manchin, he only polls 5% at best, nowhere near enough to tip the race in his favor. Manchin has also told reporters he did not want to be a spoiler candidate that would tip the race in favor of Trump—a man that Manchin said he considers a threat to the country.
“I am not going to be a spoiler, whatever you want to call it,” Manchin said during his announcement. “I just don’t think its the right time.”
While these observations are true, there were some signs of Manchin’s theoretical campaign not working out because they would have conflicted with the interests of No Labels. Recent reporting suggests that a No Labels campaign with Manchin would have been an absolute failure as the senator and the organization had two very different visions of how to run their preferred third-party campaign.
Now, one might ask, “How could Manchin’s run for President be at odds with No Labels? He’s one of their biggest supporters and was the only indivdual who expressed a real interest in running on their ticket?”
The supposed plan for No Labels selecting a third-party ticket is wrapped in secrecy and haziness. According to an article by NOTUS’s Alex Roarty, the organization’s leadership plans to interview a list of potential candidates privately and have another “bipartisan organization” pick the candidates. Rather than having voters decide who they want to run on the third-party ticket, No Labels’s leadership team will call the shots instead.
In addition to this process
, organization leaders have expressed their interest in putting a Republican politician at the top of the ticket and a Democrat as the Vice President. So far, big Republican names such as former Governor Larry Hogan, Senator Mitt Romney, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and former Governor Jon Huntsman have all declined to run on the No Labels ticket.
As for Manchin, he had a very different perspective on No Labels’s role in the 2024 election. In a CNN article by Edward-Issac Dovere, Manchin said he viewed No Labels as a ballot access organization and that anyone could run on the No Labels ticket regardless of how they are chosen by leadership. The article also states that Manchin had frustrations with the organization because of the insulated power among leadership.
“In private conversations about his potential run, Manchin now speaks of No Labels – for which he was a founding co-chair in 2011 – in belittling terms as just “a ballot access organization.” Asked whether he would include any staff or other material from No Labels if he launches a campaign, Manchin demurred. Instead, he sees the group as just his latest target to bend to his way.”
The differing opinions between Manchin and No Labels do not stop there. In an NBC article by Henry J. Gomez on Feb. 15, Manchin told a group of Ohio voters he would consider Mitt Romney or former Ohio Senator Rob Portman as potential Vice President choices. While many astute readers and reporters pointed out that Romney had already said no to the idea of running on a third-party ticket, the most notable item of the conversation was Manchin implying that he would like to be at the top of the ticket and not a Republican—going against No Labels’s preferred ticket placement.
So why is Manchin seemingly at odds with No Labels despite being a prominent supporter? The details are unknown now, but one possible explanation may be how Manchin views himself.
Veterans of Capital Hill know Manchin as someone who likes to be involved in almost everything to score political points. Whether it be energy-related matters, the national debt, or even matters where he is not part of bipartisan conversations at all, such as the recent collapse of a border security bill crafted by Senators James Lankford (R-OK), Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Manchin also believes he was responsible for ensuring that President Joe Biden would “not go too far to the left” during the creation of the Inflation Reduction Act.
This mindset may come from Manchin’s time as a former Governor of West Virginia. In this role, you are thrust into the spotlight and are the manager of the state. It would not be surprising for him to have that mindset and, therefore, have a desire to be in charge. Because of this mindset, it is no wonder Manchin has possibly become frustrated with No Labels, as their leadership is leaving him out to dry.
With all that said, while Manchin’s decision not to run for President was probably expected, there was a huge sigh of relief from Democrats who could not get a good read on him. As for No Labels, they are in critical condition as their top Democrat candidate pick has decided not to run.
To quote my fellow Generation Z colleagues, the chances of Manchin saving No Labels are very much, Joever.